Estimation of the Required Capital Investment in Mobile Telephony Network's Equipments Based on Cobb-Douglas Demand Forecasting Model
Subject Areas : electrical and computer engineering
A.
Jahanbeigi
1
M. E.
Kalantari
2
(K.N. Toosi University of Technology)
Keywords: Mobile telephony networkcapital investmentEquipmentdemand forecastingCobb-Douglas model,
Abstract :
The goal of this paper is to estimate the capital investment in mobile telephony network's equipments, by using Cobb-Douglas model to forecast the number of subscribers for the next years in the country. Then by presenting a master plan for Base Station Subsystem (BSS) and Network Switching Subsystem (NSS) parts of the network, the required equipments and also the capital investment amounts are estimated. In the BSS plan, the number of Base Transceiver Stations (BTS) with various configurations and also Base Station Controllers (BSC) with different capacities and required accessories (such as tower, antenna, feeder, power supply and transmission equipments between BTSs and BSCs) are determined. In the NSS plan, an architecture is proposed for network's traffic (including signaling). The routing plan and required interfaces with Public Switched Telephone Network (PSTN) and Public Data Network (PDN) are also presented and the capacity of network's nodes and E1 links are determined. Based on the mentioned plan and also the typical cost of different equipments, offered by domestic and foreign vendors, the capital investment of 26.7 trillion Rials seems to be necessary to increase the penetration rate from 12.4% to 48.4% in mobile telephony network.
[1] K. T. Duffy - Deno, "Demand for additional telephone lines: an empirical note," Information Economics and Policy, vol. 13, no. 3, pp. 283-299, Jul. 2001.
[2] M. Hamoudia and T. Islam, "Modelling and forecasting the growth of wireless messaging," Telektronikk, vol. 4, no. 4, pp. 64-69, Dec. 2004.
[3] C. Freeman, Diffusion of Technologies and Social Behavior, N. Nakicenovic and A. Grubler (eds.), Springer-Verlag, 1991.
[4] V. Mahajan, E. Muller, and F. M. Bass, "New product diffusion models," in Marketing, pp. 349-408, North-Holland, 1993.
[5] N. Meade and T. Islam, "Technological forecasting-model selection, model stability and combining models," Management Science, vol. 44, no. 8, pp. 1115-1130, Aug. 1998.
[6] N. Meade and T. Islam, Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners, Kluwer Academic, pp. 577-595, 2001.
[7] R. Venkatesan and V. Kumar, "A genetic algorithm approach to growth phase forecasting of wireless subscribers," Int. J. Forecasting, vol. 18, no. 4, pp. 625-646, Dec. 2002.
[8] P. S. Meyer, J. W. Yung, and J. H. Ausubel, "A primer on logistic growth and substitution: the mathematics of the Loglet Lab software," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, vol. 61, no. 3, pp. 247-271, Jul. 1999.
[9] J. W. Yung, P. S. Meyer, and J. H. Ausubel, "The Loglet Lab software: a tutorial," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, vol. 61, no. 3, pp. 273-295, Jul. 1999.
[10] European Institute for Research and Strategic Studies in Telecommunications (Eurescom), P901 Project Report: Investment Analysis Modelling, Deliverable 2, Annex B (Market Modelling), Aug. 2000 (www.eurescom.eu/~pub/about-eurescom/message02.../message02_2001.pdf).
[11] Ericsson Corp., TEMS Optimization Solutions, 2005 (http://www.ericsson.com/solutions/tems/downloads/tems_brochure.pdf), 2005.
[12] Delphius Company, GSM Communications Planning and Design: PicoPlan and Power Plan Tools (http://www.delphius.co.za/prodserv/gsm.html), 2007.
[13] Awardsolutions Inc., Network Design and Optimization: PlanetEV, DBPlanner and Asset Tools (http://www.awardsolutions.com/forms/professionalServices/ networkDesignOptimization.aspx), 2007.
[14] W. Mende, E. Oppermann, and L. Heitzer, "Mobile radio network management supported by a planning tool," in Proc. IEEE Network Operations and Management Symposium (NOMS'98), vol. 2, pp. 483-492, 15-20 Feb. 1998.
[15] Motorola Corp., Intelligent Design for Growth Planning, 2006 (www.motorola.com/mot/ doc/5/5670_MotDoc.pdf).
[16] J. S. Armstrong, Long-Range Forecasting, From Crystal Ball to Computer, John Wiley, 1985.
[17] G. P. Zhang, Neural Networks in Business Forecasting, Idea Group Publishing Company, 2004.
[18] Scientific Software Services, Forecast Pro XE and Forecast Pro Basic, 2008 (http://www.sciencedownload.com/product.php?productid=124&cat=62&bestseller).
[19] N. Economides, "The economics of networks," In. J. of Industrial Organisation, vol. 16, no. 4, pp. 673-699, Oct. 1996.
[20] مرکز آمار ايران، "آمار تعداد تلفن‌های همراه و آمار متوسط درآمد خانوارها،" سالنامه‌های آماری کشور، 1385-1376.
[21] شرکت مخابرات ايران، معاونت برنامه‌ريزی و توسعه، ادارة اطلاعات و آمار، آمار تعداد مشترکين و تعرفه‌ها، 1386-1376.
[22] سازمان مدیریت و برنامه‌ریزی، قانون برنامه چهارم توسعه اقتصادی، اجتماعی و فرهنگی جمهوری اسلامی ایران، 1383 (www.mporg.ir/barnameh4/ghanon-b4-26mehr.pdf).
[23] آ دفتر روابط عمومی و امور بین‌الملل شرکت مخابرات ایران، آمار شاخص‌های مخابراتی کل کشور (سال‌های 1375 تا 1385)، 1386 (www.irantelecom.ir/pdfs/amar/shakhes_1375_1385.pdf).
[24] L. Krank and H. Orlamunder, "Future telecommunication traffic-a methodology for estimation," in Proc. 10th International Telecommunication Network Strategy and Planning Symposium, vol. 1, pp. 139-144, Jun. 2002.
[25] م. شيخان، م. ا. کلانتري، م. عباس‌خاني، م. غيناقي، ر. طالبی و م. دارابيگی، "طرح توسعه شبکه تلفني همراه کشور و برآورد بازار تجهيزات مربوط،" مجموعه گزارش‌های طرح پژوهشی ارزيابي بازار داخلي صنعت مخابرات، وزارت صنايع و معادن، مرکز صنايع نوين، 1384.
[26] Westbay Engineers Limited, Free Erlang B Calculator for Dimensioning (Sizing) Telecommunication Trunk Groups, 2008 (www.erlang.com/calculator/erlb/)..
[27] Ericsson Corp., Ericsson GSM Radio Access Network Products, 2007, (http://www.ericsson.com/products/hp/GSM_Radio_Access_ Network_ Products_pa.shtml).
[28] Nokia Siemens Networks Inc., Maximize Profit with Multi-Radio Solutions, 2007 (http://www.nokiasiemensnetworks.com/ global/SSP/Radio+access/?languagecode=en).
[29] Ericsson Corp., Sustainable Energy Use in Mobile Communications, 2007 (http://www.ericsson.com/technology/whitepapers/).
[30] شرکت مخابرات ایران، گزارش اطلاعات مالی و قراردادها، 1385.
[31] شرکت ارتباطات سیار، گزارش‌های ترافیک‌سنجی مراکز سوئیچ موبایل، 1385.
[32] R. Passerini, "Signalling network computer aided planning and dimensioning," in Soft Proc. Seminar on Network Planning Strategy for Evolving Network Architectures, 6-10 Oct. 2003. (www.itu.int/ITU-D/tech/network-infrastructure/Warsaw-03/Day%203/4.4_Passerini.pdf),
[33] F. Hartleb and W. Urmoneit, "Dimensioning GPRS backbone links with analytical methods," in Proc. 10th International Telecommunication Network Strategy and Planning Symposium, vol. 1, pp. 15-22, Jun. 2002.
[34] P. R. Pinheiro and A. B. de Aguiar, "A model for GSM mobile network design," in Innovative Algorithms and Techniques in Automation, Industrial Electronics and Telecommunications, T. Sobh, K. Elleithy, A. Mahmood, and M. Karim (eds.), pp. 365-368, Springer Netherlands, 2007.
[35] Atesio Inc., Radio Network Planning: Location Area Planning and Simulation of GPRS Traffic: DISCNET Tool, 2006 (http://www.atesio.de/solutions/index.html), 2006.
[36] Ericsson Corp., Ericsson Announces Prices for its Bond Exchange Offer, 2003 (http://www.ericsson.com/ericsson/press/releases/20031121-925916.shtml).