مدل‌سازي، ارزيابي و کاهش اثر عدم قطعيت‌هاي سمت عرضه و تقاضا در ديناميك بلندمدت بازار برق
محورهای موضوعی : مهندسی برق و کامپیوترابراهیم خرم 1 , حسین سیفی 2 * , محمدکاظم شیخ‌الاسلامی 3
1 - دانشگاه تربیت مدرس
2 - دانشگاه تربیت مدرس
3 - دانشگاه تربیت مدرس
کلید واژه: ديناميك بازار برق عدم قطعيت دسترس‌پذيري توليد عدم قطعيت توليد آبي و بادي عدم قطعيت بار,
چکیده مقاله :
در اين مقاله ديناميك بلندمدت بازار برق با در نظر گرفتن عدم قطعيت تقاضاي بار و عدم قطعيت‌هاي سمت عرضه شامل عدم قطعيت دسترس‌پذيري نيروگاه‌ها، عدم قطعيت توليد نيروگاه‌هاي آبي و عدم قطعيت توليد نيروگاه‌هاي بادي به كمك روش ديناميك سيستم (SD) مدل‌سازي شده است. همچنين نقش پرداخت ظرفيت بر ديناميك بازار برق و بر اثرات عدم قطعيت‌ها بر ديناميك بازار مدل‌سازي و تحليل شده است. نتايج شبيه‌سازي، ميزان و نحوه تأثير هر يك از عدم قطعيت‌ها بر ديناميك بازار و اهميت آنها در مدل‌سازي ديناميك بازار برق و نيز تأثير مكانيزم پرداخت ظرفيت بر ميزان اثرگذاري عدم قطعيت‌ها بر ديناميك بازار برق را نشان مي‌دهد.
In this paper, the long-term dynamics of an electricity market is modeled, considering the load uncertainty. Moreover, the generation side uncertainties, including the uncertainties of the generators availabilities, the hydro generations and the wind generations are observed. The problem is analyzed by the System Dynamics (SD) method. Also, the effects of capacity payment on power market dynamics, with and without uncertainties, are modeled and analyzed. The simulation results show how the uncertainties may affect the long-term behavior of a power market. Moreover, it is shown how the effect of uncertainties on market dynamics, may be improved through capacity payment.
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